LPL's Midyear Outlook 2026 ("Thoughts on the Second Half") centers on four themes for the back half of the year: the U.S. midterm elections, rising resource nationalism, AI shifting from buildout to monetization, and a new Fed chair navigating sticky inflation.

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A quick overview: Growth stabilizes but stays positive, driven by business investment while rate-sensitive sectors like housing lag. Inflation eases modestly, unemployment ticks up but stays historically low. For stocks, they expect modest second-half gains and keep a moderate equity overweight, stressing diversification between AI winners and rotation beneficiaries. For bonds, they see the Fed on extended pause with the 10-year Treasury finishing between 4.00–4.50%. Want the detailed report?